Monday 27 January
- Trading statement from Dr. Martens
- German Ifo economic survey
- Belgian Courbe Synthetique economic survey
- US new homes sales
- In Japan, quarterly results from Fanuc
- In Europe, quarterly results from Ryanair
- In the US, quarterly results from AT&T, Nucor, Sofi Technologies and Sanmina
Tuesday 28 January
- Full-year results from Idox and SThree
- Trading statements from Pets at Home, AG Barr, Computacenter and Harworth
- Japanese inflation
- Chinese New Year holidays for the Year of the Snake (to 3 February)
- BRC UK shop price index
- US consumer durable goods orders
- S&P Case-Shiller US house price index
- US Conference Board consumer confidence survey
- In Europe, quarterly results from LVMH, SAP, Atlas Copco and Logitech
- In the US, quarterly results from RTX, Stryker, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Chubb, Starbucks, Royal Caribbean Cruise, General Motors, Kimberly Clark, Archer Daniels Midland, Packaging Corporation of America, F5 Networks and Qorvo
Wednesday 29 January
- Full-year results from Hardide
- First-half results from Hargreaves Services
- Trading statement from WH Smith
- Nationwide UK house price index
- Bank of Canada interest rate decision
- US oil inventories
- In Japan, quarterly results from Advantest
- In Asia, quarterly results from Alibaba and Tata Motors
- In the US, quarterly results from Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla, T-Mobile USA, IBM, Qualcomm, Danaher, LAM Research, General Dynamics, Norfolk Southern, United Rentals, Hess, Corning, Otis Worldwide, Rockwell, Teradyne, Western Digital and Skyworks
The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will make their first interest rate decisions on Wednesday and Thursday, as inflation concerns resurface across markets.
The US will make its interest rate decision as President Donald Trump settles into the White House. With a likelihood of inflationary policies, analysts have reeled back expectations for rate cuts in 2025.
Russ Mould, AJ Bell investment director, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell head of financial analysis, and Dan Coatsworth, AJ Bell investment analyst, said: “In early autumn, bond markets were anticipating four, one-quarter point rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve in 2025.
The CME Fedwatch service is now showing a likelihood of one reduction in 2025, to 4.25%. Last autumn, markets were pricing in four cuts for the year.
“Whether President Trump starts to pressure Mr Powell for cheaper money is just one further variable for investors and economists to consider. Higher interest rates, and by implication higher Treasury yields, could, if they persist, start to weigh on the US economy. Bigger interest bills could crimp the Federal government when it comes to spending or tax cuts, while higher mortgage, auto loan and credit card bills would dampen consumer spending,” the AJ Bell trio said.
“From an investment point of view, high yields on Treasuries could start to persuade investors to take less risk with equities if bonds start to offer more attractive, guaranteed returns (at least in nominal terms).”
While a cut in the US looks unlikely until May, the European Central Bank seems set to cut by 25 basis points to a refinancing rate of 2.9%, with cuts to 2% anticipated by the end of the year.
“The minutes of last December’s policy meeting in Frankfurt asserted that inflation could return to its 2% target by the middle of 2025, while economic growth has remained weak, especially in Germany and France,” Mould, Hewson, and Coatsworth said.
“The prospect of lower interest rates, even as the ECB continues to shrink its balance sheet, is one reason why both the Stoxx Europe 600 and Germany’s DAX equity indices stand at all-time highs, despite the prevailing gloom over the economic and political outlook in Europe’s largest economy in particular.”
Thursday 30 January
- Full-year results from Shell
- First-half results from Airtel Africa, Rank and Wizz Air
- Trading statements from Glencore and St James’s Place
- UK mortgage approvals
- EU unemployment
- Japanese unemployment
- US Q4 GDP growth
- US pending homes sales
- US weekly initial unemployment claims
- In Japan, quarterly results from Takeda Pharmaceuticals
- In Asia, quarterly results from Adani Ports
- In Europe, quarterly results or trading updates from Roche, Sanofi, ABB, BBVA and Caixa Bank
- In the US, quarterly results from Amazon, Visa, Mastercard, Caterpillar, Comcast, UPS, Altria, KLA-Tencor, Intel, Cigna, Ferrari, Northrop Grumman, Microchip, Baker Hughes, L3 Harris and Dow
The final week of January will see results from five of the ‘magnificent seven’ companies, including Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday and Apple and Amazon on Thursday.
Currently, the magnificent seven accounts for 35% of the S&P 500’s stock market value and a combined market cap increase of $5.4trn in the past year.
Apple holds the title of the largest stock market cap, at $3.5trn, followed by Nvidia and Microsoft. While Apple continues to trade at a near all-time high, the company’s unit shipments fell 4.1% in the fourth quarter year-on-year, with a large drop in shipments to China.
“The stronger dollar also has some nuisance value, the company faces regulatory pressure on several fronts in the USA and Europe and everyone is wondering what President Trump’s tariff plans may mean,” Mould, Hewson and Coatsworth said.
“Whatever the reason, analysts and shareholders will be looking to chief executive Tim Cook and chief financial officer Kevan Parekh, who took over that role from Luca Maestri on 1 January, for a strong first quarter, with upbeat guidance for the second.”
Analysts anticipate sales of $124.2bn for the first quarter, with earnings per share of $2.36.
“Analysts and investors will then look at the divisional mix of sales. In the fourth quarter, Services and Mac were the only segments that rose by a double-digit percentage rate year-on-year, as the app ecosystem again proved its power, while iPad sales fell year-on-year for the third time in four quarters and Wearables sales retreated year-on-year for the fifth time in a row,” the AJ Bell trio said.
Friday 31 January
- German inflation
- US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index
- In Japan, quarterly results from Fujitsu, Komatsu, TDK and Mitsui OSK
- In Asia, quarterly results from Samsung Electronics
- In Europe, quarterly results from Novartis
- In the US, quarterly results from ExxonMobil, AbbVie, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, AON, Phillips 66 and LyondellBasell